Premier League predictions for Game Week 22
It’s another captivating weekend of Premier League action and here are the predictions for the weekend and Monday night actions.
Liverpool vs Chelsea, Saturday 12.30pm
From the FA Cup final to mid-table fodder. Both teams will be back challenging soon enough but their respective declines this season have been extreme.
Having watched Liverpool perform miserably at the Amex last weekend where their midfield continued to malfunction, they are easily swerved at 5/6 with Sky Bet.
Goals, or the lack of them, look the angle here.
The 12.30pm kick-off time is always a slot for considering a low scoring affair with just a total average of 2.3 goals scored in the last 46 fixtures and those that backed the under 3.5 line would have copped a return in 80 per cent of those matches. That swims against the market here with under 2.5 goals priced up at 6/5 with Sky Bet and under 3.5 at 4/9. Both look overpriced to me.
Both teams aren’t completely flowing or looking sharp in forward areas. Liverpool, usually so relentless with their chance creation statistics, have produced an average expected goal figure of just 0.77 per-90 across their last three fixtures in matches against Wolves and Brighton.
Meanwhile, Chelsea have scored just 14 goals in 13 Premier League games under Graham Potter with all bar one of those matches falling under the 3.5 total goals line. Potter will instruct his Chelsea side to play predominantly on the counter-attack and frustrate Liverpool when out of possession. It will be similar stuff as to when Arsenal, Manchester United, Newcastle and Manchester City all only managed to score once against Potter’s side in that run. A low scoring draw looks a sensible play.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest, Saturday 3pm
It remains one of the great unsolved mysteries: how are Bournemouth still not in the relegation zone?
A defeat here would make it seven straight losses, equalling a club record that stretches back to 1955.
The last four of those in the Premier League have come without the Cherries scoring. Have they been unfortunate on this run? No, according to the underlying data which paints a horrendous picture.
Gary O’Neil’s side have posted just 0.74 of per-game expected goals data this season which is the second lowest of any team in a Premier League season since Opta started capturing this data in 2010. Just eight shots per-90 minutes is the fewest recorded by any Premier League side since that data started being analysed in 1997. Plus, when it comes to the expected goals ‘battle’ they have lost in 16 of their 19 Premier League games this season – and in two of the three games they won with only a 0.06 and 0.01 edge.
It’s difficult to see them defying such metrics in their bid for survival and explains why they are red-hot favourites for the drop at 2/7 with Sky Bet. And for this clash they are having to make do without three of their most influential players in Marcus Tavernier, Dominic Solanke and Lewis Cook.
Much of the price for a Nottingham Forest win is being inflated by their own atrocious away form, scoring just twice in their nine games. But this is a different team, playing with much more confidence and a tighter gameplan, to the one from earlier this season that was getting annihilated 4-0 by Leicester. And let’s be fair not many teams will have racked up a healthy run on the road having played all of the top four in the shape of Arsenal, Manchester City, Newcastle and Manchester United.
This is a team that have won six of their last nine games (including penalty shoot-out win vs Wolves), have beaten Liverpool and Tottenham, drawn with Chelsea and Brighton and have attacking players in Brennan Johnson and Morgan Gibbs-White very much in-form. So, why are they rated equal to Bournemouth in the match prices? Yes, home advantage will play a part but Forest are simply the better side, have the greater attacking threat and possess a more experienced and talented manager. The 17/10 for an away win is a gift.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-2
Leicester vs Brighton, Saturday 3pm
Leicester have regressed back to their early season flimsiness, losing five of their last six games in all competitions and scoring just twice.
One of my main issues with them is their complete inability to respond when falling behind in a game. They remain the only team in the Premier League to win any points from losing positions, losing all seven games when conceding first.
They’ve also dropped a Premier League-high 17 points from winning positions this season suggesting there are huge mentality and character flaws within this current Leicester group.
Things may spark when James Maddison and Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall return to full-fitness but despite them being in contention for this encounter, Leicester are to be taken on, especially against a team that have scored 17 goals in their last five games.
Brighton were a vibrant beast in the win over Liverpool and will be popular around Evens with Sky Bet. However, I’d rather back a goal-focused angle with Karou Mitoma the pick to score first at 8/1 with Sky Bet. The Japanese winger has four goals in his last eight appearances in all competitions and is relishing playing in this free-flowing Roberto De Zerbi side.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-3
Southampton vs Aston Villa, Saturday 3pm
What a footballer James Ward-Prowse is.
Not many players could adapt to being asked to play as a second striker having spent their career playing in a deeper midfield role yet the Saints captain is not only adapting but flourishing. His ability to intelligently press is among the best in the Premier League and his boss Nathan Jones is utilising that skillset which has seen Ward-Prowse become even more of an attacking outlet.
Such is his prowess from attacking free-kicks and being the designated penalty taker too, prices across his shot and goal output are still worth a second look despite Sky Bet cutting their prices after being able to grab 100/30 on his anytime chances last weekend.
Ward-Prowse has had seven shots on target and four goals in his four appearances for Jones in the Premier League, so taking the 13/2 first goalscorer price is still a value play considering the confidence and threat Ward-Prowse is showing.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
West Ham vs Everton, Saturday 3pm
Those with bigger brains than me have argued that home advantage in a professional football match should be worth 0.4 of a goal when trying to build models to predict an outcome.
However, you can throw that logic out of the window in a game of this nature though where the pressure of the current situation on West Ham and their manager David Moyes means playing at home is a massive disadvantage.
There looks no way back for Moyes at the club now and when fans are so united on such a subject the environment makes players nervous and becomes so difficult for them to deliver their best performance levels. And even then, based on the actual form of West Ham over the past 12 months, it’s hard to trust this group to get maximum points even against a side with such limitations like Everton.
In the past year the Hammers have won just nine of their last 35 Premier League matches and one of their last 10 – forget what’s gone before under Moyes, that’s relegation form.
Anything but an early West Ham goal is going to cause mass frustration within the home ranks – and the Hammers don’t do fast starts at home so I’m expecting big problems for Moyes and his boys.
The Hammers have conceded at least two or more shots on target in all nine of their last first halves when playing at home in domestic competitions and have fallen behind in all three of their last home games.
So, with the atmosphere likely to become toxic against Moyes and little hope of him changing his ways for this encounter, I’m staggered to see West Ham trading at odds-on for the win at 3/4 with Sky Bet.
Everton possess the experience and energy in midfield to take advantage of any trepidation within the home ranks. And, in truth, can count themselves unfortunate based on the performance metrics to be seven games without victory having done enough to win both games against Southampton and Wolves. There might still be hope for Frank Lampard but there is little for Moyes. Away win.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2
Crystal Palace vs Newcastle, Saturday 5.30pm
Newcastle are heading towards the Champions League. It’s no fluke either when you look at their underlying data that assesses the dirtier side of the game, most notably defending and being a threat from set pieces.
They are the best in the Premier League at both.
Newcastle have now kept eight clean sheets in their last 10 Premier League games, conceding just two goals. And boy are they a threat from set pieces. Eddie Howe’s side have fired 106 shots from set piece situations to a backdrop of an expected goals figure of 10.09 – the best returns of any team across both metrics. It’s therefore a huge underperformance to have only merited six goals from such situations this season – six teams have scored more.
I’d side with them finding a way past Crystal Palace, who are yet to win against a current top half team this season, in a low scoring clash. Those looking for a betting angle in should invest in Dan Burn’s shots and goals odds on offer. Palace have shipped the most expected goals from set pieces of any team in the Premier League this season (8.08) so have been very fortunate to conceded just four goals.
Also, in the reverse meeting between these two at St James’ Park, Newcastle created a whopping 2.08 expected goals from set pieces in that 0-0. The most any team has created this season in a single game and only bettered by Manchester City’s haul of 2.56 against Norwich when assessing all Premier League games since the start of last season.
Burn had a shot in just 11 minutes on the pitch in that clash with Palace and managed a shot in the 1-0 win for the Toon over Patrick Vieira’s team in April. He goes up for every set piece with his average touches in the opposition box bringing in a healthy return of 1.43 per-90 over a 36-game sample size with his shots per-90 data coming in at 0.6.
This all equates to the 13/8 with Sky Bet available on him having one or more shots being very appealing. He is 40/1 with Sky Bet to score first, too – something that landed in Newcastle’s Carabao Cup win over Leicester where he actually scored from open play with a rampaging run from left-back.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-1
Manchester City vs Wolves, Sunday 2pm
Wolves were a team going nowhere fast under Bruno Lage but now have positive momentum under Julen Lopetegui. Once their defensive process started to crumble a few months ago Lage had no answers but it has been revitalised by the Spanish boss.
Well-organised, low block defences don’t come tighter than Wolves, who could be set to send Pep Guardiola’s frustration levels off the scale in this one. Last season this Wolves side only lost the aggregate score 10-8 when playing teams that finished in the top-nine away from home and to my eye Lopetegui has got them back to playing at that defensive level. That included a 1-0 defeat to Manchester City, where they played for half the match with 10-men and were only undone by a late penalty.
With City still not quite purring or finding the right balance in attack, the 11/8 with Sky Bet on Wolves starting with a +2 goal handicap is worth considering meaning the bet will land if they win, draw or lose by one goal.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-0
Leeds vs Brentford, Sunday 2pm
Thomas Frank is a manager worth listening to. He says Leeds are better than their current league position suggests.
That then insinuates that probabilities of them winning football matches are being undervalued in the betting markets.
The underlying attacking numbers for Leeds across their last four games back that view up and are seriously impressive, racking up an average expected goals total of 11.83, averaging out at 2.8 per match, spearheaded by the excellent Wilfred Gnonto, who has sent the fanbase wild with a string of exciting performances.
On the back of what was a fantastic attacking performance at Aston Villa and in midweek against Cardiff, they look tempting to follow at 13/10 with Sky Bet to beat Frank’s Brentford albeit with the caveat of defensive mishaps potentially restricting their ability to see the job through.
I’d expect them to be creating and conceding chances to Brentford whose games have averaged 10.2 shots on target this season. I’d expect this clash to hit that sort of number – and most probably more.
SCORE PREDICTION: 3-2
Arsenal vs Manchester United, Sunday 4.30pm
Goals look on the menu in what should be a game to savour in the prime time TV slot. These two are the most in-form teams in the Premier League, both taking 16 points each from their last six games. Both attacks are firing and are producing patterns of play that are devilishly hard to defend against.
The Gunners have scored 32 goals in their last 11 Premier League home games, scoring two or more goals in 10 of those last 11 fixtures whilst United have scored in 16 of their last 17 Premier League matches and looked improved in the final third with Wout Weghorst leading the line against Crystal Palace where they were unfortunate to draw. His ability to bring other attackers into the game adds to United’s armoury.
Both teams to score at 8/13 with Sky Bet has been well-supported but in order to boost that price, taking the Evens on both teams to score and the game producing over 2.5 goals looks a smart way to get lots of likely correct scores on your side in a game Arsenal may just edge.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1
Fulham vs Tottenham, Monday 8pm
Antonio Conte’s men carry such an air of vulnerability courtesy of a shaky backline in front of an even shakier goalkeeper – but boy do they carry an attacking threat, especially with Dejan Kulusevski back from injury. This is going to lend itself to goal-heavy matches if they remain playing in the same vein.
In what should be a game that threatens the over 2.5 goals line at 8/11, both goalkeepers are likely to be kept very busy, so a way to back a more lucrative price than just for over goals is to look at the total shots on target market.
Both these teams are known for seeing plenty of on-target action in their matches with their total match shot on target average ranking Tottenham (10.2) second and Fulham (9.8) fourth this season in the Premier League. Looking at the last 15 combined Premier League fixtures for both sides, it has seen 10 or more shots on target in the game land on 12 occasions. That makes the 10/11 with Sky Bet for it happen again a tempter for those looking to get involved.
